Toyota considers following GM out of Nummi deal

It is a tough choice. Overlooked is the interdependence of the TABC plant in Long Beach and the TMMBC plant in Tijuana. Not to mention suppliers such as Dana that makes the frames and ships to NUMMI, TABC, TMMBC and the Corolla plant in Canada (TMMC). The issue boils down to the Tacoma. Other production could be moved rather easily. However, enegy and maintenance costs are based on hourly usage, which translates to higher per unit costs as volume decreases. I am certain that Toyota is weighing these fixed costs against the added logistics costs of moving NUMMI volume to San Antonio. With the Tijuana plant at full capacity and the Long Beach plant not having the extra capacity, San Antonio would be the logical choice.

However, a Japanese trait is that all parties must be able to part company while saving face. The straight up business decision is not so tough, but doing it while saving face for all, is very difficult. My best guess is that NUMMI will cease to function, but something like a very downsized TMMCAL will replace it.